Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
